Author Archives: alistair

Waterfalls on Table Mountain

Jules and I went for a cool walk on Table Mountain on Sunday. There had been quite a lot of rain over the last few days so there was a lot of water on the mountain. We got these cool pics at a point where the path went behind a waterfall.

This was at a point where I had watched a tourist being rescued by helicopter a week before (I posted about it here). We looked down from the point where she had fallen – very hectic. She must have been pretty careless or unlucky, but I suppose that accidents do happen.

Ten politically incorrect truths about human nature

Here is an interesting introduction to evolutionary psychology. The idea is that “human behavior is a product both of our innate human nature and of our individual experience and environment”. The “innate human nature” is the product of millions of years of evolution and has a serious impact on our behavior.

The results of this kind of analysis can often seem ‘ugly’ to us. They are not polite, they are not meant to be. They are however very interesting and their clear logic appeals to me.

There are ten examples in the article (not all of which I agree with), but some are interesting. An interesting introduction to the field so I have included a few quick summaries below:

2. Humans are naturally polygamous

  • “Polygyny (the marriage of one man to many women) is widely practiced in human societies”
  • We know that humans have been polygynous over our history because men are generally bigger than women. In other species (specifically other primates), bigger males indicate polygyny

3. Most women benefit from polygyny, while most men benefit from monogamy

  • Contrary to popular belief, polygyny actually benefits women! In a highly unequal society a woman is better off sharing half of a wealthy man than all of a poor one. In a polygenous society poor men lose out and the average women gain. So our monogamous society actually benefits men.
  • “Men in monogamous societies imagine they would be better off under polygyny. What they don’t realize is that, for most men who are not extremely desirable, polygyny means no wife at all”

The Trivers-Willard hypothesis is also discussed

  • The hypothesis states roughly that the sex of a child is slightly skewed depending on the parents’ circumstances to maximize reproductive payoff
  • Sons of wealthy and high status parents will inherit that wealth and status. These sons could go on to have many “wives, mistresses and concubines, and produce dozens or hundreds of children, whereas their equally wealthy sisters can have only so many children”
  • “So natural selection designs parents to have biased sex ratio at birth depending upon their economic circumstances—more boys if they are wealthy, more girls if they are poor.”
  • “This hypothesis has been documented around the globe. American presidents, vice presidents, and cabinet secretaries have more sons than daughters. Poor Mukogodo herders in East Africa have more daughters than sons. Church parish records from the 17th and 18th centuries show that wealthy landowners in Leezen, Germany, had more sons than daughters, while farm laborers and tradesmen without property had more daughters than sons. In a survey of respondents from 46 nations, wealthy individuals are more likely to indicate a preference for sons if they could only have one child, whereas less wealthy individuals are more likely to indicate a preference for daughters.”

You are probably a simulation

In a previous post I discussed the idea that the only thing you can ever really know is that there are thoughts. You might not even exist. Your existance might be an illusion… Deal with it.

In fact your whole life might be a simulation – like the Matrix, except without the Zion part.

I’ve always liked that thought – even though it makes no difference to my daily life. It’s just interesting. I used to think about the possibility that my whole life is a computer game that the ‘real’ me is playing in another reality.

This post from Boing Boing takes the whole idea even further. Basically some ‘reasonable’ assumptions are made, leading to a surprising conclusion.

  1. We can never truly know that what we perceive is real (agreed)
  2. One day truly realistic simulations will exist which will seem 100% realistic to participants (reasonable)
  3. Many such simulations will be run, probably concurrently (given 2 then I agree)

If these assumptions are accepted then it is actually more likely that you are a simulation than ‘real’. The more simulations that are run, the lower the probably that this is the ‘real’ reality!

This of course makes no difference to my daily life – I’m stuck in this simulation and I rather like it. It is strange to think about though.

Maybe I should reject the second assumption to make myself feel better!

Evolutionary arms race seen at warp speed


A lot of people don’t “get” or won’t accept that evolution is real because of the immense time scales required. National Geographic reports on a case when evolution was witnessed over a few years.

A bacteria had been killing almost all male larvae of a species of butterfly found on two Somoan islands. A 2001 study found that 99% of the butterflies were female. As recently as 2005 when an informal count was done no males were found at all. The bacteria was really hammering the males of the species and was in danger of wiping the butterfly out completely.

However, all of a sudden (OK, it took a few years but on evolutionary time scales that is all of a sudden) scientists noticed the male butterflies making a comeback. It seems that a single male evolved a mutation which allowed it to escape the bacteria’s attacks. Because this was such a huge advantage the genes spread extremely rapidly. It seems that the whole recovery took only a few generations.

Evolution in action baby. Don’t deny it. Don’t come with your micro-evolution rubbish. Love it.

Cool tools – Launchy

I’m banging away on my computer all day long, so anything that increases my productivity is welcome. Launchy is one of the best programs in that category and I probably use it hundreds of times a day.

Basically, Launchy is a quick program launcher. For instance, if I wanted to open up a new Excel window quickly I would:

  1. Hit control-space to open up the Launchy window
  2. Start typing what I am after and Launchy would guess what it is. In my case ‘ex’ is enough (Launchy learns your favorites)
  3. Hit enter and up comes Excel

That’s 4 keys to open Excel!

Launchy indexes all of the shortcuts in your start menu and on the Desktop. No more scratching through the start menu looking for a shortcut.

You can do all sorts of other clever things with Launchy. Get it to index text files or commonly used Excel files. Index your bookmarks folder for each access to your favorite sites. Make a shortcut to shut down your computer.

It’s one of those programs that just works. It does what you want, it’s quick, it looks good – you will never look back.

Floor crossing in South Africa – dodgy

Churchill once said:

It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.

I agree, which is why I get a little upset at the erosion of South Africa’s democracy which is allowed by our floor crossing law. In South Africa we vote for parties rather than people. The ANC has enacted a law which allows politicians to ‘reallocate’ votes cast for a particular party by changing parties and keeping their seats.

We vote for a particular party, but a politician may take our vote to another party by crossing the floor. Absolute rubbish – and here are some of the reasons I think this law sucks:

  • It distorts the democracy by allowing politicians to steal people’s votes.
  • When the law was initially requested by another party it was rejected by the ANC. However, when the NNP wanted to join the ANC there was a sudden change of heart and the crossing was allowed.
  • There is a clause saying that a person can only cross if 10% of his/her party also crosses. That effectively means that no ANC member can ever cross (because 29 other members would also have to cross) while smaller parties can easily lose members. I can’t think of a single reason for this clause other than to protect the ANC.
  • The whole thing can easily lead to bribery and corruption as money is used to induce crossings.

I can’t think of any reasons why floor crossing should be allowed? It feels a lot like cheating to me.

Here is the Wikipedia article on the subject.

Olifants Wilderness Trail


I recently went on the excellent Olifants Wilderness Trail in Kruger. Ahead of the trip I was looking for information on what to expect and I was surprised to find almost nothing available on the internet.

I thought that I would knock together some information for those of you considering doing the trip – which I definitely recommend.

Continue reading

Paramedics on Table Mountain


I was running on Table Mountain on Saturday morning when I came across a rescue operation for an American woman who had slipped and tumbled 15m down the mountain. It was a beautiful day, but the rocks were slippery after heavy rains recently and she wasn’t the only person hurt on the day.

Paramedics got to the scene first and were about to go up to get her when the rescue helicopter arrived on the scene. The chopper paramedics were winched down to the injured lady and she was later lifted out and taken to hospital. I believe she is stable with broken bones and head and spine injuries.

While I was watching the whole scene it was interesting to see how many people were involved and how little value a lot of them were adding. There were at least 7 emergency services vehicles on the scene including a huge fire engine. Once the helicopter arrived nobody left, they all just stuck around to watch.

I was sitting next to about 7 paramedics who were sitting around, chatting and taking photos of the helicopter. When a pretty reporter arrived they briefly (and unsuccessfully) concentrated their energy on getting her number. Everyone was still sitting around when I left after the helicopter had flown off.

They were fun guys and girls, but it all seemed like a waste of resources.

The Economist on Manto and the ANC


In the last two weeks The Economist has had two articles (here and here) on our health minister, Manto. From the articles:

  • AIDS is now thought to kill 1,000 South Africans each day
  • Some 12% of the population, more than 5m people, are infected with HIV
  • She [Manto] has sown deadly confusion in the minds of many HIV sufferers by questioning the efficacy of ARVs and exaggerating their side-effects, instead promoting the curative benefits of beetroots, garlic and African potatoes.

Now she has been accused of receiving a liver transplant because of a serious drink problem, and of continuing to drink since her transplant. The local Sunday Times, in possession of her confidential medical records, also alleges that hospital staff were forced to bring her booze during an earlier hospital stint for a shoulder operation. The newspaper maintains that she was convicted of stealing patients’ jewellery and hospital supplies while working in Botswana in the 1970s, following which she was banned from the country for ten years.

The more general of the articles criticizes Thabo and the ANC in general for firing the effective deputy minister of health instead of Manto:

“Ms Madlala-Routledge was certainly feisty. She was, for instance, fond of visiting hospitals unannounced. Often she witnessed dreadful conditions and poor management—and then talked honestly about these problems in public. To Mr Mbeki and others in the African National Congress-dominated government, this sort of initiative and candour were not evidence of a democratic representative doing her job but of an undisciplined cadre refusing to defer to her bosses, who prefer to discuss such matters behind closed doors.”

I have often thought along similar lines about the ANC. The organization had to survive years of exile and oppression so it had to develop a strong emphasis on providing a united front and absolute loyalty. When your lives are at stake and you’re fighting an oppressive regime you can’t afford to show any dissension.

The problem is that those times are gone and the ANC still emphasizes the same culture – which is bad for a democracy. Absolute loyalty is not only unnecessary, it is having a negative effect on the country.

When being special means nothing – the Anthropic Principle

We live in a very special universe. All sorts of things about our universe (like the strength of gravity) are perfectly tuned for the existence of life. If any of these universal qualities were even slightly changed life could not have arisen. Surely that suggests that the universe was tailored for the purpose of allowing life – presumably by some God?

The short answer is: No.

The Anthropic Principle
The more detailed answer is the Anthropic Principle. The Anthropic Principle is pretty cool and I plan on using it in some future posts so I thought I would explain it.

In short, the anthropic principle says that you shouldn’t read too much into a seemingly rare event if the only reason that you noticed the event is that it is rare.

Huh? – let’s have an example
Yeah, that did sound a little circular so lets have an example. Say you are flipping coins all day long. Eventually you’ll get 10 tails in a row – an event that in isolation has very low probability. The anthropic principle says that you shouldn’t read too much into it because the only reason you noticed was that it is rare. Most of the time nothing special was happening.

The chances of eventually getting 10 in a row are actually very high – don’t get excited when it eventually happens.

I had some friends who used to infer probabilities on the roulette table based on improbable strings of results. If they saw 5 reds in a row they inferred that black had to come up soon and bet black. The anthropic principle shows why this is madness (sorry guys). If you wait long enough you are guaranteed to eventually get a string of 5 reds, and when you do it has no bearing on the next spin.

It seems simple now, but I have had plenty of debates about this and I always find it tricky to get the point across.

So why isn’t our universe special?
The whole idea has it’s roots in cosmology. Cosmologists noticed that the universe appears to be finely tuned to creating an environment in which life can exist. It is easy to infer that God must have created it that way specially for us. However, the anthropic principle says that we shouldn’t read too much into the universe being so finely tuned. If the universe wasn’t “just right” for life then we wouldn’t be around to notice it!

The universe is special for other reasons – but it’s random luck that everything is set up to allow life.